After the festival, the onshore RMB exchange rate rose nearly 1000 points, and the plywood export enterprises were in a mess

After the festival, the onshore RMB exchange rate rose nearly 1000 points, and the plywood export enterprises were in a mess.

On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, the onshore RMB opened more than 800 points against the US dollar. In the plywood factory where I was on business, we heard complaints from the factory and foreign trade personnel. “We are in a terrible loss.” The contents of wechat / Facebook / twitter are also complaining about the loss caused by RMB appreciation.

The RMB continued to strengthen.

Since entering the appreciation range at the end of May, the onshore RMB / USD exchange rate has risen by more than 4000 points, and the offshore RMB / USD exchange rate has increased by about 5000 points, which has returned to the level in mid April 2019.

In my opinion, the epidemic has brought supply shock to overseas major economies, and the demand side policy has made overseas commodity consumption recover rapidly, and demand spillover has brought sustained impetus to China’s export. On the one hand, this makes domestic policies more focused on risk prevention; on the other hand, it is difficult for overseas stimulus policies to exit before the epidemic shock dissipates.

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