Analysis of the EU’s Anti-Dumping Investigation on Chinese Plywood
1. Likelihood of Anti-Dumping Duties Being Imposed
The EU’s preliminary ruling on anti-dumping duties against Chinese plywood is expected on May 9, 2025. Based on historical EU trade defense measures, the probability breakdown is:
- Probability of Duties Being Imposed: ~30-70%
- The EU has frequently imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese products (e.g., steel, ceramics, aluminum).
- European plywood producers (e.g., in Finland, Romania) may lobby strongly for protection.
- Chinaโs plywood exports to the EU have grown significantly, increasing dumping suspicion.
- Probability of No Duties: ~30-40%
- If Chinese exporters can prove fair pricing (no dumping margin) or minimal injury to EU industry.
- Strong opposition from European importers/construction sectors reliant on affordable Chinese plywood.
2. Expected Anti-Dumping Duty Rates
If imposed, duties could range:
- Preliminary duty (May 2025): 20-40% (based on past EU cases like ceramic tiles, which saw ~30-36%).
- Final duty (2026): Could increase to 40-60% if the EU finds strong evidence of dumping/subsidies.
3. Alternative Sourcing Countries if Duties Are Imposed
European importers may shift to:
- Vietnam (growing exporter, lower labor costs, some EU FTAs).
- Indonesia/Malaysia (strong plywood industries, but some sustainability concerns).
- Brazil (emerging supplier, but higher logistics costs).
- Turkey (geographically close, but prices may rise due to high demand).
- Russia (if sanctions allow, but political risks remain).
4. Will EU Importers Diversify Even if Duties Are Not Imposed?
Yes, likely due to:
- Supply Chain Resilience: Post-COVID/Ukraine war, EU firms prefer multiple suppliers.
- Sustainability Pressures: Some may shift to FSC-certified producers (e.g., Finland, Estonia).
- Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing US-China/EU-China tensions encourage diversification.
Conclusion
- ~55% chance of preliminary anti-dumping duties (20-40% range).
- Major alternatives: Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey.
- Diversification is probable even without duties, but China will remain a key supplier if no tariffs apply.
