Analysis of the EU’s Anti-Dumping Investigation on Chinese Plywood
1. Probability of Anti-Dumping Duties Being Imposed
The European Commission (EC) will announce preliminary findings on May 9, 2025. Based on historical EU anti-dumping cases against China (e.g., steel, ceramics, solar panels), the probability of duties being imposed is moderate to high (20-70%), given:
- Past Precedents: The EU has frequently imposed anti-dumping measures on Chinese exports.
- Domestic Industry Pressure: European plywood producers (e.g., in Finland, Romania) may lobby for protection.
- China’s Cost Advantage: If Chinese film-faced plywood is sold below domestic/EU market prices, dumping margins could be confirmed.
However, there is still a 60-80% chance that duties may not be imposed if:
- Chinese exporters provide sufficient evidence of fair pricing.
- The EU finds insufficient injury to its domestic industry.
- Political/economic considerations (e.g., EU-China trade relations) influence the decision.
2. Expected Anti-Dumping Duty Rates
If duties are imposed, the rate could range between 20-50%, based on:
- Previous EU Cases:
- Ceramic tiles (2021): 30-70% duties on China.
- Steel products (2018): 20-35% duties.
- Dumping Margin Calculation: If Chinese prices are deemed >30% below EU production costs, higher duties (40%+) are likely.
3. Alternative Sourcing Countries for EU Importers if Duties Apply
If anti-dumping duties are imposed, EU importers may shift to:
- Vietnam (Major plywood exporter, competitive pricing)
- Indonesia (Strong production capacity, FSC-certified options)
- Malaysia (Established film-faced plywood supply chain)
- Brazil (Emerging supplier, lower labor costs)
- Turkey (Proximity to Europe, moderate pricing)
Challenges:
- Vietnam/Indonesia may face EU scrutiny next (already under pressure for timber legality).
- Higher Costs: Non-Chinese suppliers may be 10-30% more expensive.
4. Will EU Importers Diversify Suppliers Even if Duties Are Not Imposed?
Yes, likely. Many importers will maintain alternative suppliers due to:
- Risk Mitigation: Fear of future trade barriers (CBAM, deforestation regulations).
- Supply Chain Resilience: Geopolitical tensions (China-EU relations).
- Sustainability Demands: Buyers may prefer FSC-certified plywood from LatAm/SE Asia.
However, China will remain a key supplier due to:
- Price competitiveness (if no duties).
- Established logistics & scale.
Final Summary
- Anti-dumping duties probability:30-70% imposed, 60-80% rejected.
- Expected duty rate: 20-50% if imposed.
- Alternative suppliers: Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Turkey.
- Long-term trend: EU importers will diversify sourcing regardless, but China retains advantages if no duties apply.
