U.S. Plywood Importer Forecast & Analysis on CVD/AD Cases vs. Vietnam & Indonesia Birch Plywood
| Topic | Key Forecasts & Analysis |
|---|---|
| 1. Expected Duties (Rates) | Vietnam: Preliminary CVD: 6-12%, AD: 15-25%. Indonesia: Preliminary CVD: 8-15%, AD: 10-20%. Final rates may be higher/lower, but significant duties are likely. |
| 2. Supply Chain Impact if Duties Are HIGH (Unfavorable for VN/ID) | • Importers: Rapidly diversify sourcing to Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, & China for alternative hardwood/combine core plywood. • Vietnamese Mills: Shift production to non-birch, non-subject products (e.g., MDF core, poplar, mixed species). Use minor processing in Cambodia/Laos for transshipment (with new origin rules risk). • Indonesian Mills: Focus on non-US markets (Middle East, Japan, EU) and domestic demand. High-cost mills may consolidate or close. • U.S. Market: Short-term supply shortage & price inflation. Boost for domestic softwood plywood & Canadian imports. |
| 3. Supply Chain Impact if Duties Are LOW/Favorable for VN/ID | • Importers: Lock in long-term contracts with major VN/ID mills. Supply chains stabilize. • Vietnamese/Indonesian Mills: Aggressive expansion of birch plywood capacity. Potential price competition among Asian suppliers. • Investments: Mills will invest in automation and certification (CE, CARB) to solidify U.S. market share. • Risk: Renewed trade complaints from U.S. domestic industry if import volume surges again. |
| 4. Key Southeast Asian Producer Strategies | • Thailand & Malaysia: Position as primary beneficiaries to capture redirected U.S. orders. Market “non-dutiable” species. • Major Mills (e.g., Korindo, Fuma in Indonesia; Kim Tin, VRG in Vietnam): Already preparing “if-high-duty” plans: product shift, market diversification, & legal challenges to USDOC rulings. • Region-wide: Expect increased M&A activity as larger groups absorb vulnerable, export-dependent smaller mills. |
Summary: U.S. importers anticipate material duties, triggering a major realignment. High duties force a pivot to Thailand/Malaysia and product changes from VN/ID. Low duties lead to consolidation and expansion in Vietnam/Indonesia. The entire SE Asian supply chain is preparing for volatility and opportunistic shifts.
